Plant-Based - $103 Billion by 2032

 

The world is demanding alternatives to animal-based foods and food manufacturers are developing PLANT- BASED EVERYTHING!!!!

 

Article 7 - December 2024 — by Paul J Knox

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​The demand for plant-based foods is growing faster than any other food division and the addition of protein into foods has never been stronger thanks to an educated consumer. Consumers today understand that there are several health benefits associated with protein and while whey protein has always been the go-to, plant proteins are making a solid move to be a contender. Both proteins help:​

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1. Repair and build tissues

2. Convert food into energy (Metabolic reactions)

3. Strengthen the immune system

4. Transport and store nutrients

5. Can act as an energy source

6. Promote growth and muscle mass

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There was a time when increasing protein in the diet was for the body builder and the athlete but today protein is seen as beneficial for everyone, and consumers are demanding it. Manufacturers are responding by adding protein to everything and while whey protein has always been considered the gold standard of proteins the need and demand for plant-based protein is growing at a higher rate than whey protein.

 

From ice cream and cheese to baked goods and confections well-known brands, new brands and even dairy brands are developing plant-based foods to meet the high demands of plant-based consumers and the need for plant proteins is greater than ever.

 

Not that long ago Omnivorous consumers ruled the food industry. There was such a small percentage of plant-based consumers (Vegans and vegetarians made up ~ 4% - 6%) that the food industry didn’t pay much attention to their needs. Today the food industry can’t ignore the plant-based consumer. Consumers demanding more plant-based foods is up to 47% and it’s estimated that 70% of American homes have recently purchased plant-based products. 

 

Omnivores remain the majority but not by much and maybe not for long. Here is a breakdown of today’s “food” consumer categories:

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1. Omnivore: (53% of the consumer base) Regularly consumes significant quantities of both plant and animal-based foods (all meats and Dairy)

2. Flexitarian: (36% of the consumer base) Eat primarily fruits and vegetables but add meat, poultry and fish on occasion. They will also eat both dairy and dairy alternatives.

3. Vegetarian: (5% of the consumer base) NO MEATS! Dairy, dairy alternatives and plant-based foods including fruits, vegetables, legumes, nuts and seeds.

4. Pescatarian: (3% of the consumer base) vegetarian diet that includes fish and seafood, but excludes meat and poultry

5. Vegan: (3% of the consumer base) nothing from an animal including meat, dairy, eggs, and honey

 

The shift in demand has been growing since the early 2000’s and continues to grow as new generations see a need for change in the food industry. “Clean label and clean Environment”. The drive for plant-based is due to growing concerns about personal health, the environmental impact of animal agriculture, and ethical considerations regarding animal welfare.

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Just for Fun: Generation Groups Population:

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1. Greatest Generation Born before 1928 (97 and older) — 00.44 million

2. Silent Generation: Born 1928-1945 (76-93 years old) — 16.47 million

3. Baby Boomers: Born 1946-1964 (57-75 years old) — 70.09 million

4. Generation X: Born 1965-1980 (41-56 years old) — 65.55 million

5. Millennials: Born 1981-1996 (25-40 years old) — 72.70 million    

6. Generation Z: Born 1997-2012 (9-24 years old) — 69.31 million

7. Generation Alpha: Born 2010-2025 (0-14 years old) — 42.75 million

 

NOTE: The demand for more protein is not generation specific; everyone wants it!!

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JustProtein Demand Growth Rate

(Please Note: The statistics of each of the following categories vary between the sources but all sources show strong growth)

 

Alternative Proteins  (Foods)

Plant-based food products that replace animal-based food products such as cheese, meat, eggs, milk etc. as well as plant-based foods in general. This category of food is expected to grow at a Compound average growth rate (CAGR) of 17.4% from 2024 to 2032

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Animal Protein (Whey Protein) ​

Whey Protein is estimated at $12.64 Billion in 2024 with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2024 to 2032 to reach $22.63 Billion

 

Plant-based proteins 

is estimated at USD $14.3 billion in 2024; it is projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.5% to reach USD $20.5 billion by 2029.

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Whey Protein

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Whey Protein is considered the gold standard in the protein world, because of its amino acid profile and strength building benefits. Whey Protein is a complete protein which means it contains all nine essential amino acids in sufficient quantities. Essential amino acids are those that the human body cannot produce on its own and must be obtained through diet. 

The nine essential amino acids are as follows:

 

1. Histidine

2. Isoleucine

3. Leucine

4. Lysine

5. Methionine

6. Phenylalanine

7. Threonine

8. Tryptophan

9. Valine

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DIAAS and PDCAAS

 

Complete proteins are typically found in animal-based foods such as meat, dairy, and eggs. Most plant-based proteins are not considered complete because they don’t contain all the essential amino acids. 

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The way the industry measures the quality of a protein is by its Digestible Indispensable Amino Acid Score (DIAAS) and or the Protein Digestibility Corrected Amino Acid Score (PDCAAS)  The score is based on how well our bodies can digest the protein and how well it meets our amino acid needs. 

 

The highest possible score for PDCAAS is 1.0, but DIAAS scores can be above 100. A DIAAS score of 100 is considered very good but the higher the score the better the protein. 

 

NOTE: DIAAS is considered a more accurate measure of digestibility as it is measured at the end of the small intestine whereas the PDCAAS is based on an estimate of digestibility over the total digestive tract which often leads to an overestimated amount of amino acids absorbed.

 

WHEY Protein DIAAS score is typically just over 100 and the PDCAAS is 1.

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Here’s a list of the most popular plant proteins, their global value and their PDCAAS score (Note: scores may vary slightly from producer to producer depending on the plant source and processing methods) Also: DIAAS scores are not as readily available but most plant proteins score is below 100.

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• Pea Protein: (PDCAAS = .93) Estimated at 2.1 billion in 2024 with a CAGR of 12.4% through 2034. 

• Pumpkin Protein:  (PDCAAS = .90) Estimated at $1.6 billion with a CAGR of 6.2 to reach $2.08 billion by 2028 

• Quinoa Protein: (PDCAAS = .89) Estimated at $12.72 Billion in 2024 with a CAGR of 11.1% reaching $169.54 by 2028 

• Rice Protein:  (PDCAAS = .70) Estimated at $10.6 Billion in 2024 with a CAGR of 12.9% through 2030 to reach $15.9 Billion.

• Hemp Protein: (PDCAAS = .66) Estimated at $9.47 billion in 2024 with a CAGR of 14.05% expected to reach $21.58 Billion by 2032. 

• Chia Seed Protein: (PDCAAS = .65)   Estimated at 1.51 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 14.19% to reach 2.93 billion by 2029

• Sunflower Seed Protein: (PDCAAS = .60) Estimated at $80.9 Million in 2024 with a CAGR of 9% to reach $147.88 Million by 2034

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When it comes to ensuring a plant-based product contains all the essential amino acids at levels that benefit the consumer, manufacturers often blend two or more plant proteins together, for example pea and rice.

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Plant Protein vs Animal Protein:

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Both proteins benefit the body; It’s a matter of what the individual is looking for.

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• Whey Protein is a complete protein containing all the essential amino acids and BCAA’s. It is known for building muscle. Whey also contains higher levels of Sodium and Potassium that are beneficial

• Plant protein: The plant source matters. The amino acid profiles differ from plant to plant but blending plant proteins together can help boost the amino acid profile. Depending on the plant there is often a higher nutrient and often antioxidant content and plants are considered more environmentally friendly than whey protein. For these reasons, plant proteins have gained a lot of attention. 

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Plant vs Animal and the Need for Water

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As the world’s population continues to grow (currently ~8.2 billion expected to peak in the 2080’s at ~ 10.3 billion) there is concern for the future of the planet’s water supply, and air quality. Some studies suggest that reducing the animal population will help reduce carbon emissions and reduce water usage. 

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Raising livestock requires more water than growing crops partly because of the water needed to grow the crops that feed livestock. In the US better than 67% of crops are used to feed livestock.

 

While the earth will not run out of water there is a serious concern about getting drinkable water to parts of the world including parts of the USA if current water usage patterns don’t change. Water supply will become an issue due to increasing population growth and climate change that is affecting precipitation and heat patterns. 

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Reducing Livestock with Lab-grown Meats

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The food industry is taking these environmental concerns seriously and looking for ways to reduce animal population while keeping meat on the grocery shelves. A handful of innovative companies are producing meat in labs using animal cells. According to labgrownmeat.com there are currently 36 companies around the world making lab grown meats including Fish, Pork, Chicken, Beef and even Foie Gras.  This industry is currently valued at 65.2 million but is expected to see a CAGR of 44.5% to reach a value of 6.5 billion by 2035.

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Reducing Dairy Products with Plant-based Alternatives

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Many companies are producing alternatives to cheese, yogurt, milk, butter, etc. Anything that is traditionally made from cows’ milk is being reproduced using plants.  Once again; it is believed that reducing the number of animals will help support a stronger and healthier future.

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Price Comparisons:

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While plant proteins tend to be less expensive there are several variables that affect the pricing of both categories so pricing can vary throughout the year:

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For Example: The current whey protein market, December 2024, is very tight, and prices are very high due to high demand and short supply. WPI90 is being offered in the range of $9.10 - $9.50/ LBS FOB plant. (NOTE: In 2022 WPI90 was selling for under $3.00/LBS for a short time).

 

Currently, Prices are not expected to get any better until sometime in Q2 2025. There are several new protein plants coming on board in 2025 that will help with supply and help reduce prices. Demand is not expected to slow much so when prices do finally soften, they are not expected to drop dramatically. 

 

On the other hand, Pea Protein Isolate (the most popular plant protein) is offered somewhere in the range of $2.50 - $3.50/LBS. Depending on the source of Pea protein it can have a PDCAAS of between .93 and 1 so its amino acid profile is very good. 

Unfortunately, a lot of Pea Protein (and other plant proteins) is imported, and the next government administration is threatening to place tariffs on imported ingredients including plant material from all countries especially China. This could dramatically change the cost of plant proteins. We’ll have to wait to see if it happens and what the tariff rate will be if it does. 

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Conclusion:

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Demands are changing. The growth in the world population is slowing down but is expected to remain growing at a slower rate for the next 60 years. The concern for supporting that growth with enough food and water as well as cleaning up the environment is a focus of the current generations and is expected to be the same for future generations. 

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For now, the drive for animal-based products will remain strong thanks to the demands of the older generations and the growth in demand for proteins, but as the older generation’s population subsides so will the demand for animal-based products. This is not to say animal based will disappear but simply the demands for animal and plant are lining up to change places and plant based will be a bigger part of the future.